Demography, Institutions, and Power: Reframing Eurasian Connectivity in an Age of Strategic Fragmentation

Abstract

Eurasian economic cooperation has evolved unevenly, raising the question of whether demographic complementarities, institutional capacity, and geopolitical pressures jointly shape cross-continental engagement. This study extends the Cross-Country Cross-Continent Economic Development Theory by integrating demographic economics with realist political economy to examine how structural asymmetries across Asia, the European Union, and Russia influence connectivity cooperation. Using a panel dataset covering 1950–2024, the analysis evaluates the relationships among demographic complementarity, connectivity potential, political friction, institutional capability, and Eurasian cooperation. Descriptive and correlational assessments are complemented by panel estimations and dynamic specifications to test direct and mediated effects. The findings indicate that demographic differences constitute a latent structural asset but do not directly translate into cooperation. Institutional capability and political friction emerge as the most consistent predictors, while cooperation demonstrates strong temporal persistence. In periods of geopolitical uncertainty, short-term increases in connectivity potential are associated with reduced cooperation. The results suggest that demography functions as an enabling condition rather than an autonomous driver, and that the economic realization of complementarities depends on institutional governance and manageable political friction. These conclusions reinforce the policy relevance of strengthening domestic demand, institutional stewardship, and systemic resilience to sustain cross-continental engagement.